Blog post 2, Nukes in Iran

Throughout the past couple of weeks we have discussed numerous times, the effects of nuclear weapons, and the way international/regional relations are affected by them. More specifically, we discussed the nuclear situation in the middle east pertaining to Iran. We debated a little in class  about whether or not Iran acquiring a bomb would be a positive or negative occurrence. After debating the topic, and going over readings in class, I believe that Iran acquiring nuclear capabilities would be a good thing, rather than bad. Many have argued against this point. Many think that as soon as iran acquires nuclear capabilities, they will instantly use it against Israel. It is also argued that since Iran has ties to hateful groups like Isis, they will arm terrorist groups with nuclear weapons. Historically speaking, countries that have acquired nuclear weapons, have not become increasingly aggressive. They have actually become more retracted in their ways. Many believe that when a country finally develops nuclear capabilities, they feel more vulnerable, not unstoppable. This has been clearly evident in India, Pakistan and China not becoming hostile or aggressive after getting the bomb. Going back to the speculation that iran would instantly use it on Israel the moment they got it just doesn’t add up. The leaders of Iran aren’t irrational. Even though they indulge in extreme religious rhetoric, they aren’t insane. Conducting a first strike attack against Israel would lead to a massive scale retaliation which would undoubtedly be the self destruction of Iran. Also, even though they accept extremist terrorist groups, giving them access to a bomb of such massive proportions makes little sense. Terrorist groups are unpredictable, and nuclear weapons are extremely dangerous and costly, so Iran transferring a bomb to a terrorist group is extremely unlikely. Not only does giving a terrorist group a nuclear weapon make little to no sense for the leaders of Iran, the surveillance of the United States would without a doubt become aware of this transfer.
Iran wants to acquire nuclear capabilities for security, not for offensive use. Israel has held a nuclear monopoly in the middle east of quite some time, and power is extremely unbalanced. Tensions in the middle east will only start to lessen, once a more equal balance of power is established. Even if a country is deterred through sanctions, and threats of actions, it is hard to stop the progression of the development of a bomb. An example of this is the recent events of North Korea. After receiving multiple sanctions and threats, North Korea still developed an atomic weapon.

So to conclude, I think Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon is  inevitable and only a matter of time before they get one, and in the long term, positive outcomes will be seen.    

Comments

  1. Jared RostkowskiOctober 24, 2017 at 3:40 PM

    I like the road you took with this. People always seem to immediately dismiss the possibility of allowing Iran to have Nuclear weapons. But while I do agree that Iran having a bomb would not be a bad thing, I also think that them not having one is a bad thing either. While I don't think Iran would ever give a bomb to terrorists, just having the thought of there being a small chance that they could, isn't worth them having it. Israel having being the only having the bomb isn't terrible. Israel is smart enough to never use it, and the fact that, historically, the Middle East has been everyone against Israel, Israel has them for its own safety so that the Middle East doesn't come after them.

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  2. UnknownOctober 24, 2017 at 3:53 PM

    With Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon I do not find it to be necessarily a bad thing either since all countries are now building or already obtain a nuclear weapon. As a result, with states holding nuclear weapons it levels the playing field and creates less competition between states. Therefore, I agree with your statement that Iran having a nuclear weapon is not a concerning problem.

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